global warming ii: the science and modeling of climate change

25/01/2021 — 0

Nearly half the sulfates in the atmosphere originate from sulfur dioxide emissions from power stations and industry, particularly in the northern hemisphere. We owe the difference of some 33 °C substantially to natural levels of water vapour (60%, or more including clouds) and carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. Our climate scientists have been working with the UK government and other research agencies on a programme called The AVOID2 programme on avoiding 'dangerous' climate change, which explores the potential long-term effects of 'dangerous' climate change. * Increased concentrations of CO2 and other radiative gases here mean that less heat is lost to space from the Earth's lower atmosphere, and temperatures at the Earth's surface are therefore likely to increase. There were large fluctuations in ice cover on Greenland and western Antarctica during the Pliocene, and during the warm intervals those areas were probably largely free of ice. Such estimates depend on the physical behaviour of each kind of molecule and its lifetime in the atmosphere, as well as the gas's concentration. It is now clear that global warming is mostly due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (mostly CO 2). Over the last century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased Climate scientists first began to use computers to predict future global temperatures in the early 1970s. An Earth System Model (ESM) is even more complicated, measuring the carbon cycle, soil evolution, vegetation, and human infrastructures. About 34 million years ago, at the end of the Eocene, ice caps coalesced to form a continental ice sheet on Antarctica. The report also states that costs of achieving any overall target for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would increase if any generation options were excluded. Sea Level Change Portal. It is based at the WMO in Geneva. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 2.0 mm per year over 1971 to 2010. “A well-known example is the south-north ocean overturning circulation, which is maintained by cold salty water sinking in the North Atlantic and which involves the transport of extra heat to the North Atlantic via the Gulf Stream. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur. Accordingly, it predicted that, based on the range of scenarios, by the end of the 21st century climate change will result in : There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the above effects on the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, tornadoes and to some extent, droughts. The first part of each Assessment Report on the physical science basis of climate change (from Working Group I) concluded that the evidence that human-derived greenhouse gas emissions had already had an impact on the climate had strengthened. ESMs also measure how environmental policy decisions could influence global warming. Natural processes can also contribute to climate change, including internal variability (e.g., cyclical ocean patterns like El Niño, La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and external forcings (e.g., volcanic activity, changes in the Sun’s energy output, variations in Earth’s orbit). Climate scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NASA evaluated climate models from the early 1970s into the late 2000s to … At the beginning of that cooling (in the early Eocene), the global average temperature was about 6-7 ºC warmer than now. Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio. This class describes the science of global warming and the forecast for humans’ impact on Earth’s climate. Effects. In the northern hemisphere, as global cooling continued, local ice caps and mountain glaciers gave way to large ice sheets around 2.6 million years ago. The IPCC summary in 2013 estimated that cumulative fossil fuel and cement production CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2011 was about 365 GtC, with another 180 GtC from deforestation and land use change. Geologists have recently contributed to improved estimates of climate sensitivity (defined as the increase in global mean temperature resulting from a doubling in atmospheric CO2 levels). Weather refers to atmospheric conditions that occur locally over short periods of time—from minutes to hours or days. Keep track of Earth's vital signs, see the planet in a state of flux and slow the pace of global warming with NASA's free mobile apps. * Part of this 'window' (12.5-18 µm) is largely blocked by carbon dioxide absorption, even at the low levels originally existing in the atmosphere. The first two of four headline statements from Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (the Synthesis Report of the Fifth Assessment Report) are: Among the Fifth Assessment Report findings on physical science were: In the Fifth Assessment Report, four scenarios for future carbon emissions to 2100 ranged from means of 270 GtC, assuming substantial cuts in emissions and correlated with best-case radiative forcing of 2.5 W/m2, to 1685 GtC correlated with 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing. The Geological Society, Climate Change: evidence from the geological record, A statement from the Geological Society of London (November 2010) Both oceans and some terrestrial ecosystems provide sinks which function as a negative feedback, that is to say they have increased their uptake as the atmospheric concentration has increased. More bonds = more vibrations = more IR absorption. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) The amount, extent and rate of this exceeds natural climate variability, some of the warmest years on record have been in the last decade. Its GWP is 23,900. While the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations is remarkable, and the rate of anthropogenic emissions considerable (some 36 billion tonnes per year in 2014), even this is only about four percent of the natural flux between the atmosphere and the land and oceans. As well as the band consideration, methane is a stronger greenhouse gas because it has more atoms in the molecule than CO2. But a host of global climate models developed for the United Nations’s next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a … Hence there is, for the time being, a balancing cooling effect on the Earth's surface. Here there has been a significant decrease in sea ice since satellite records began in 1978. With a doubling of overall electricity demand by then, and a carbon emission cost of $50 per tonne of CO2, nuclear's share of electricity generation is projected by IPCC to grow from 11% now to 18% of the increased demand. Susan Callery Recent studies show that the oceans lose heat to the atmosphere during warm El Niño events, while more heat penetrates to ocean depths in cold La Niñas. These reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions, thus giving a range and probability of climatic impacts on different regions of the world. The oceans have also warmed slightly, affecting the climate. This removes about one-quarter of anthropogenic emissions and is responsible for much of the increase in photosynthesis worldwide since about 1900. However, as warming increases, the possibilities of major abrupt change cannot be ruled out.” However, “the climate system involves many competing processes that could switch the climate into a different state once a threshold has been exceeded. The IPCC prepared a special report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, and how this might be achieved in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. The Fourth report acknowledged that nuclear power is now and will remain a 'key mitigation technology'. It took the Earth’s climate around 100,000 years or more to recover, showing that a CO2 release of such magnitude may affect the Earth’s climate for that length of time. Long story short: “We find that climate models published over the past five decades were generally quite accurate in predicting global warming in the years after publication.” Scientists use observations from the ground, air and space, along with theoretical models, to monitor and study past, present and future climate change. Then there is the question of residence time in the atmosphere. Arctic summer sea ice disappearing in second half of century in all but hte lowest scenario. Randal Jackson Coal-fired generation* gives rise to twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas per unit of power at the point of use, but hydro, nuclear power and most renewables do not directly contribute any. Ice core samples show that both carbon dioxide and methane levels are higher than at any time in the past 650,000 years – CO2 there being 170-270 ppm*. By the 1990s, as a result of improving fidelity of computer models and observational work confirming the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, a consensus position formed: greenhouse gases were deeply involved in most climate changes and human-caused emissions were bringing discernible global warming. During parts of the previous interglacial period, when polar temperatures reached 3-5 °C above today’s, global sea levels were higher than today’s by around 4-9 metres. Since then, the pause in tropospheric warming may be due to the timing of long Pacific and Atlantic ocean cycles. Global sea level is very sensitive to changes in global temperatures. Carbon dioxide cannot sensibly be called ‘pollution’ at any envisaged atmospheric levels. Arctic sea ice is an indicator. In the stratosphere, water vapour from methane oxidation and possibly from aircraft may be a forcing agent, but the former is included in methane’s GWP. Electricity generation is one of the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions, providing about one-third of the total and one-half of the increase expected 2005-30. While it is true that varying intensity of energy from the sun has driven long-term climate … Diatomic molecules, like O2 and N2 which mostly make up our atmosphere, absorb very little IR. Settled Science: A new study published in a peer-reviewed journal finds that climate models exaggerate the global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%. The second part of each IPCC Assessment Report (Working Group II) deals with impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities. The first draft cited about 3000 publications, two-thirds of them being since the Fifth Assessment Report. In 2018 it rose 2.3 ppm … Of course climate change is real. The greenhouse effect itself occurs when short-wave solar radiation (which is not impeded by the greenhouse gases) heats the surface of the Earth, and the energy is radiated back through the Earth's atmosphere as heat, with a longer wavelength. This runs counter to the economic objectives of sustainable development. AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change Furthermore, there was greater confidence in predictions of the impacts of future greenhouse gas emissions. The overwhelming consensus on climate change is human activity is responsible for the warming of the planet. This class provides a series of Python programming exercises intended to explore the use of numerical modeling in the Earth system and climate sciences. In respect to enhancing the greenhouse effect, or the likelihood of AGW, the particular issue is focused in the 8-18 µm band where water vapour is a weak absorber of radiation and where the Earth's thermal radiation is greatest. The 'greenhouse effect' is the term used to describe the retention of heat in the Earth's lower atmosphere (troposphere) due to concentrations of certain trace gases and water vapour in the atmosphere. Since the pre-industrial period, human activities are estimated to have increased Earth’s global average temperature by about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), a number that is currently increasing by 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. Certain inputs to the atmosphere can be discerned and readily quantified – carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning* and CFCs from refrigerants for instance. In addition to these well-documented radiative gases there is increasing concern about sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) used in grid switchgear, with about 8000 tonnes emitted annually and increased use envisaged. Graphs and animated time series showing real-time climate change data, including atmospheric carbon dioxide, global temperature, sea ice extent and ice sheet volume. Average life-cycle carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions for different electricity generators (Source: IPCC). NASA’s Earth Observatory. Also its residence time is only about nine days, compared with years for CO2 and methane. About one-third of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions come from the burning of fossil fuel to generate electricity. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. Others, such as methane sources, are less certain, though about one-fifth of the methane emissions appear to be from fossil sources (coal seams, oil and natural gas, about 110 million tonnes per year). These gases are generally known as greenhouse gases (or more specifically as radiative gases). The Foundation for Science and Technology, summary of debate on What is the right level of response to anthropogenic induced climate change?, held at The Royal Society on 16 June 2014 The remainder of the 'window' coincides with the absorption proclivities of the other radiative gases: methane, (tropospheric) ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. Relating these atmospheric concentrations to emissions, sources and sinks is a steadily evolving sphere of scientific inquiry. Meeting the Paris Agreement requires immediate and all-inclusive action encompassing deep decarbonization complemented by ambitious policy measures, protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and biodiversity, and effort to remove CO. Global climate models project future scenarios by modeling how broader-scale processes like greenhouse gas emissions force the global climate to respond. 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